Across the last 10 MLB seasons, data shows a .385 R-Squared Value between OBP & tmW-L%, and a .424 R-Squared Value between OPS+ & tmW-L%

By the time I’d saved the spreadsheet, I had a deep conviction that the 2011 edition of the Tampa Bay Rays would score about one hundred runs less than the team scored in 2010, and I didn’t think that was necessarily a consensus opinion. So now the questions in my mind were: What does this mean for their season win total—and how can I make money off this view?

Peta, Joe. Trading Bases (pp. 31-32). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.

After reading Joe Peta’s book Trading Bases, the desire to create my own statistical model for betting on baseball was too strong to ignore. So I ventured on over to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs to download some data – the last 10 years of team offensive and defensive statistical totals, and the ZIPS player projections for 2020. Then I started playing in Tableau.

This post will focus specifically on the correlations between a team’s on-base percentage (OBP) and their win percentage (tmW-L%) , as well as their on-base plus slugging plus (OPS+) and their win percentage.

Over the last 10 MLB seasons, the data shows a 0.385 R-Squared value between OBP & tmW-L%, and a 0.424 R-Squared Value between OPS+ & tmW-L%. But the variance in strength between these correlations is huge, because there are many other variables that contribute to a team’s chances to win. A team like the Yankees has, over the last 10 years, fielded an offensive and bullpen minded team, whereas the Mets have been strong in starting pitching and defense, at the expense of getting on base and power.

The Yankees Over The Last 10 Years

The Yankees OPS+ & Winning % had an R-Squared Value of .868 over the last ten years.

What About The Mets?

The Mets, on the other hand, had literally 0 correlation between OBP, OPS+ and Winning %.

Take a Look at The Entire League

Categories: Chart Of The Day

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