I think the first overall pick in any fantasy baseball draft has to be obvious:

Mike Trout, last year’s AL MVP, looks to continue to improve his game in 2015. Here is how Fangraphs see’s his stats playing out next year:

OOTP 15 sees Trout having a slightly less productive year than FanGraphs, with a 7.8 WAR rating vs. 9.4 WAR. OOTP expects to see a drop in HR, RBI and AVG.

As a result in the declining power numbers, OOTP predicts Trout to steal more bases, something that ESPN’s David Schoenfield does not expect to happen:

“Mike Trout is No. 1. No surprise there, although it’s worth noting that his stolen bases have dropped from 49 to 33 to 16. Has he lost his speed? Stopped running so Albert Pujols doesn’t have to take pitches? Stopped running to preserve his legs? Whatever the issue, his days as even a 30-steal guy may be gone. Also, as pitchers discovered his weakness on high fastballs, he declined from .310/.400/.606 in the first half to .257/.347/.502.”

At the end of the day, here is what I predict Mike Trout’s 2015 stats to look like:

Categories: Player Projections